Job loss due to coronavirus worse than expected

 



Around 400 million full-time jobs have been lost and women are the most affected by the pandemic, are some of the conclusions of the latest situation report from the International Labor Organization, which presents three possible recovery scenarios based on the evolution of COVID-19 and the measures taken.

In the first half of 2020, the equivalent of 400 million full-time jobs were lost due to the COVID-19 crisis, a number much higher than previously estimated, and a 14% drop in working hours was recorded. world level, the International Labor Organization warned on Tuesday.

According to the agency, the uncertain recovery for the remainder of the year will not be enough to return to previous levels of the pandemic, and even in the best scenario there is a risk of seeing continued large-scale job losses.

The new figures reflect the worsening situation in many regions in recent weeks, especially in developing economies. In the Americas, the largest amount of work time was lost with 18.3%, followed by Europe and Central Asia with 13.9%, the Middle East with 13.2% and Africa with 12.1%.

The vast majority of the world's workers, 93%, continue to live in countries with some form of workplace closures, and the Americas experience the greatest restrictions.

Three different scenarios

The ILO Observatory: COVID-19 and the world of work presents three scenarios for recovery in the second half of 2020: one neutral, one pessimistic and one optimistic. The long-term outcome depends on the future trajectory of the pandemic and the political decisions of governments.

The neutral model is based on a rebound in economic activity in line with current forecasts, the lifting of restrictions in the workplace and the recovery of consumption and investments. Under these assumptions, the decrease in the loss of work hours would be 4.9% percent (equivalent to 140 million full-time jobs) in relation to the fourth quarter of 2019.

The pessimistic scenario assumes a second wave of the pandemic and the return of restrictions, which would slow down the recovery significantly. As a consequence, there would be a decrease in working hours of 11.9% (340 million full-time jobs).

The optimistic scenario assumes that workers' activities will resume quickly, significantly boosting aggregate demand and job creation. With this exceptionally fast recovery, lost work hours would decline to 1.2 percent (34 million full-time jobs).

Some sectors, such as catering, are among the most affected by the pandemic.

Women, the most affected

The study also confirms the impact that the pandemic has on female workers who have been more disproportionately affected, creating the risk that some of the modest progress on gender equality achieved in recent decades will be lost and that work-related gender inequalities are exacerbated.

The serious impact of COVID-19 on women is related to their majority representation in some of the economic sectors most affected by the crisis, such as hotels, restaurants, commerce and the manufacturing industry. Globally, almost 510 million of all employed women, around 40%, work in the four most affected sectors, compared to 36.6% of men.

Women also predominate in the sectors of domestic work, healthcare and social services, where they are at greater risk of losing their income, becoming infected and transmitting the virus, and are less likely to have social protection.

The uneven distribution of unpaid care work before the pandemic has also worsened during the crisis, exacerbated by the closure of schools and care services.

Women among those most affected by the coronavirus crisis.After surviving military

The main challenges of the future

While countries have adopted policy measures with unprecedented speed and scope, the Observatory highlights some of the challenges that need to be addressed:

 the right balance and sequence between health and economic interventions, and between social and political interventions with the aim of producing optimal sustainable results in the labor market

Implement and sustain policy interventions at the necessary scale when resources are likely to become increasingly limited

Protect and promote the conditions of vulnerable, disadvantaged and most affected groups so that labor markets are fairer and more equitable

Guarantee solidarity and international support especially for emerging and developing countries

Strengthen social dialogue and respect for rights 

From: https://news.un.org/es/story/2020/06/1476782

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